CAUSES OF ZANU PF`S DEMISE!!!

This failure at re-inventing itself to resonate with the ‘new voter’ whose attachment to liberation politics is not as emotional, has haunted most of the liberation movements in Africa.

This presents the greatest threat to the survival of ZANU PF as a (former) liberation movement, and as well its quest for continued hegemony. This threat is further compounded by entrenched gerontocracy and ethnicity commonly referred to as factionalism. This piece will argue that ZANU PF is not a coherent and solid unit as it has been in the past but will be fighting for its life in the forthcoming elections. This is so, in light of its failure to regenerate itself and the internecine eth nic struggles within it. Furthermore it will be argued that ethnicity (commonly referred to as factional ism) makes ZANU PF vulnerable in electoral politics. Its over dependence on the Mashonaland vote presents its major vulnerability as Mashonaland is not Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe is not only Mashonaland as Jonathan Moyo once re marked on Harare not being Zimbabwe. Liberation or independence parties that failed to transform themselves and accommodate a younger cadre ship that understands the new voters have faced extinction in the face of emerging opposition parties in Africa. United National Independence Party (UNIP) of Zambia is a good case of a liberation move ment, and Malawi Congress Party (MCP) an independence party, that lost power and are facing extinction. In the same vein the Kenya African National Union (KANU) faced the same demise but had to find orphanage and rehabilitation in the Jubilee Alliance led by Uhuru Kenyatta.

Tanganyika African national Union (TANU) initially failed to appreciate the need for regeneration but quickly realised the need to transform hence re christening itself ChamaChama Mapinduzi (CCM) and undertook various key reforms that resonated with the new generation citizens (the so called born frees by ZANU PF). The ANC of South Africa, SWAPO of Namibia, BNP of Botswana and FRELIMO of Mozambique have also realised the dangers of the trappings of power and entrenching incumbency in office, hence they instituted leadership renewal within their political DNA. It is the failure by ZANU PF to realise this publicly available wisdom that ‘matakadya kare haanyaradzi mwana’ (literally translated, a child won’t stop crying from hunger because she ate yesterday). The past can only be relevant and comforting if it is only linked to the fulfilment of needs in the present. More so, the failure of retiring its old guard has meant continuous recycling of failed ideas and lead ers, thus creating a paralysis of pol icy crafting and implementation within the state apparatus.

The results are glaring with what appears to be rampant looting, plunder by ZANU PF elites and mortgaging of natural resources to the Chinese under the guise of ‘Looking East’. In addition the entrenching of gerontocracy within ZANU PF has meant that leadership renewal is anathema, therefore curtailing ambitions of vertical mobility within its ranks. The nicodemous political scheming meetings attest to the increasing discontent within the ranks of ZANU PF of failing to deal with regenerating itself. This also has the potential of alienating itself especially with the ‘new voter’ or ‘born frees’ who have be come a key constituent in our electoral politics. This new group of voters is the sword of Damocles hanging over ZANU PF’s head. Ethnicity is the other factor that presents a major threat to ZANU PF having a coherent and sound electoral campaign strategy.

Though, this factor has been interpreted as factionalism in various political circles, in this paper it is argued that what is tearing ZANU PF is resistance of Zezuru hegemony by other ethnic groups within it. This Zezuru alliance is rooted within the Mashonaland provinces, and has been at the centre of ZANU PF’s politics. The history of this ethnic hegemony finds expression from the days of the liberation as captured in the late Professor Masipula Sithole’s book, “Struggle within the Struggle”, which argued that there was purging of the non Zezuru factor and promotion of the Zezuru aligned group within the political hierarchy of ZANU. This escalation of ethnic politics in post independent Zimbabwe saw the clipping and curtailing of presidential aspirants such as Edison Zvobgo, Emmerson Mnangagwa and Simba Makoni. The collapse of the Tsholotsho Declaration and subsequent meteoric elevation of Joyce Mujuru to the presidium un der the guise of women empower ment, further entrenched the Zezuru clique within ZANU PF. It should be noted that Emmerson Mnangagwa (a Karanga) had out manoeuvred Joyce Mujuru (a Zezuru) and managed to unite other ethnic groups within ZANU PF who felt that it was now their time to take over. The disbanding of District Coordinating Committees (DCCs) by ZANU PF in 2012 marked a further assault to the Mnangagwa/Karanga ethnic group allied with Manyikas and Ndebele elements in ZANU PF, that had managed to regroup and capture the DCCs after earlier failed Tsholotsho attempts. Reasons advanced were that DCCs were divisive, yet the reality is that it was the eruption of the ethnic tensions that have been simmering in the ZANU PF pot.

The fidgeting and instability in Manicaland and Bulawayo province attest to the increasing discontent and disapproval of continued Zezuru hegemony in ZANU PF by other ethnic groups within it. Similarly, the Manicaland provincial leadership has been dissolved and the Bulawayo provincial leadership re aligned and putting a leadership that is pliant to Zezuru interests. Hence, my argument that it’s ethnicity at play in ZANU PF, and not factionalism, as conventionally argued. More so, this contradicts the claims of a re aligned ZANU PF from ‘Bhora Musango to iBhola egedini/Bhora mugedhi’, remaining only on Nathaniel Manheru’s wish list. Simply put the Mnangagwa alliance will always play second fiddle in the succession matrix of ZANU PF as it is not trusted by the Zezuru alliance whose face is Joyce Mujuru at the moment. In the same vein President Mugabe is only comfortable with the Mnangagwa alliance; in so far it acts as a brake to the ambitions of the Mujuru alliance and not entirely re placing the Zezuru hegemony of which he is a product. The only thing that is binding these ethnic alliances in ZANU PF is Mugabe and outside him, ZANU PF will implode from intense ethnic war fare. This puts ZANU PF in a precarious position and also failing to rally its constituencies to a single and solid unit.

The matrix of gerontocracy failed succession politics and ethnicity presents major fault lines within the ZANU PF apparatus. This may also explain the waning of ZANU PF support particularly post 1990, as the ideals of the liberation simply became more of political nostalgia rather than bread on the table. Therefore, it seems ZANU PF’s prospects look dim as exhausted nationalism starts to breed diminishing returns. Increasingly the voter has metamorphosed, and this has been most particularly with the so called born frees who are now numerically a political force as 15 group have emerged after the first group of those born in 1980 attaining 18 years in 1998. That means from 1998 new voters have been emerging for the past 15 years.

This is outside other age groups that were born towards independence, arguably from 1974, who were too young to develop ties with the liberation struggle. It is from this perspective that ZANU PF looks vulnerable if this group of voters is tapped into. Furthermore, old age is most likely to catch up with ZANU PF’s choice for the presidency in managing a rigorous campaign, hence its continued reliance on authoritarian tactics in an attempt to harvest fear in the elections. The increasingly intense ethnic/factional fights in ZANU PF, further undermines the prospects of re alignment of its constituencies as warring groups adopt a scorched earth mentality. Just like in a nasty divorce the warring parties would make sure the other doesn’t profit.

It has been argued in this paper that ZANU PF is not a solid and coherent party as it was in 1980 or 1985 but is in its last days as it has failed to regenerate itself and manage the ethnic cleavages within it. Its pro spects in the forthcoming elections look dim, and its survival will be more dependent on the electoral strategies and blunders of the pro-democracy movement. There is need to push for electoral reforms, continuous piling pressure on the ZANU PF machinery and as well building the capacity to communicate effectively with the electorate and monitor the electoral process by the pro-democracy movement.