The argument why
Tsvangirai and Ncube cannot unite is often feeble, rooted in petty personal
differences rather than serious ideological and policy issues. Serious and
genuine talks involving the top leadership of both parties can easily resolve
the issues at stake. If Tsvangirai and Ncube could work with Mugabe, why would
they not work together for the broader cause of democracy and national
progress? If these two leaders fail again to unite, but collectively claim
victory as they did during the March 2008 general elections, they will have
lost the best opportunity to secure change and history will judge them harshly.
Putting aside partisan issues, is it not statistically clear the MDC formations
won both the presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2008? The reason
why I emphasise Ncube as a key player is not to demean other democratic forces,
but empirically argue my case for the need to have a democratic coalition to
confront Mugabe.
Statistical analysis
of the performance of Ncube’s formation in 2008 shows if his group supported
either Mugabe or Tsvangirai, the one who would have had his backing would have
won the first round. This observation is without prejudice to Makoni who was
the presidential candidate. The reality is Makoni won huge votes in areas where
Ncube’s parliamentary and council candidates also won. So it was largely due to
Ncube’s influence there, hence his significance as a political player,
especially in the context of coalitions ahead of the polls. The significance of
Ncube is further expressed in the overall 2008 presidential election result in
which Tsvangirai got 1 195 562 votes (47,87%), Mugabe 1 079 730 (43,34%) and
Makoni 207 470 (8,31%).
This result, further
illustrated by the nearly 200 000 people who voted “No” to the current draft
constitution, shows if Tsvangirai, Ncube and Makoni were fighting in the same
corner, Mugabe would already be history. Mugabe is still in power courtesy of
divisions among democratic forces. This also happened in the 1992 Kenyan
presidential election.
The March 2008 presidential result outcome at regional levels show Mugabe would have won in only three provinces — Mashonaland West, Central and East if Tsvangirai and Ncube had united. Worse still for Mugabe, his margins in those three Mashonaland provinces would have been narrowed down and became wafer-thin if the opposition joined forces.
The March 2008 presidential result outcome at regional levels show Mugabe would have won in only three provinces — Mashonaland West, Central and East if Tsvangirai and Ncube had united. Worse still for Mugabe, his margins in those three Mashonaland provinces would have been narrowed down and became wafer-thin if the opposition joined forces.
In the March 2008
presidential election in Matabeleland South province, for instance, Tsvangirai
got 28%, Mugabe 30% and Makoni 38%. A combination of Tsvangirai and Makoni who
was supported by Ncube would have meant a deadly electoral blow for Mugabe as
that would have given the opposition 68% of the vote. In Harare, Tsvangirai got
72%, Mugabe 19% and Makoni 8%, Bulawayo Tsvangirai 51%, Makoni 37% and Mugabe
11% and Mashonaland West Mugabe 52%, Tsvangirai 42% and Makoni 5%. This trend
of Mugabe hugely losing to the combination of Ncube and Tsvangirai was recorded
in Masvingo, Midlands, Manicaland, and Matabeleland provinces. The quantitative
meaning of these results is clear: a coalition between Tsvangirai and Ncube
will bury Mugabe.
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